World Affairs: August 2003 Archives

Remember that Iraqi scientist who revealed that he had hidden unranium enrichment centrifuge equipment under a rosebush in his back yard? It was big news a month or so back when it was presented as the beginning of a flood of Iraqi scientists coming forward with mea culpa's and secret treasure maps to WMD nirvana. Wonder why you haven't heard more from that scientist? Now you know.

But for the Bush administration, things quickly began to go wrong with the Obeidi story. True, Obeidi said he’d buried the centrifuge equipment, as he’d been ordered to do in 1991 by Saddam’s son Qusay Hussein and son-in-law Hussein Kamel. But he also insisted to the CIA that, in effect, that was that: Saddam had never reconstituted his centrifuge program afterward, in large part because of the Iraqi tyrant’s fear of being discovered under the U.N. sanctions-and-inspections regime. If true, this was a terribly inconvenient fact for the Bush administration, after months in which Secretary of State Colin Powell and other senior officials had alleged that aluminum tubes imported from 11 countries were intended for just such a centrifuge program. Obeidi denied that and added that he would have known about any attempts to restart the program. He also told the CIA that, as the International Atomic Energy Agency and many technical experts have said, the aluminum tubes were intended for rockets, not uranium enrichment or a nuclear-weapons program. And he stuck by his story, despite persistent questioning by CIA investigators who still believed he was not telling the full truth.

He's currently being held incommunicado by the CIA in a Kuwaiti safe house. Safe, that is, from the press and uncomfortable questions.

[via Talking Points Memo]

Atrios posted a response from the Van Impe's on the White House "request" for an outline on the apocalypse.

"On July 7th or 8th we received a call from Justin Bush of the Office of Public Liaison for the White House asking Dr. Van Impe to attend a meeting with Dr. Condoleezza Rice and a few other faith-based leaders to discuss President Bush's "Roadmap to Peace in the Middle East."

"Due to a busy taping schedule for his weekly TV program, Dr. Van Impe was not able to go to Washington for this meeting, but we told Justin Bush that he would be taping a video the following Saturday that will be sent to Dr. Rice as soon as it is finished. That tape, "The Roadmap to Peace: Potholes & Road Rage" is currently in post-production and will be sent to Dr. Rice and President Bush upon completion."

This is almost certainly not true, but it would be interesting to see why Jack Van Impe thinks the White House contacted him. I suspect it's because he's batshit insane. Someone ask Chuck "The Omen" Ohman.

Dear Washington Press Corps, here's an easy one for you. Could someone please verify if Jack Van Impe Ministries International was really contacted by the Office of Public Liason of the White House and Condoleezza Rice to prepare an outline on the coming apocalypse?

Glenn Reynolds is coming around on the WMD as political club theory I presented a few weeks back. I'll note that John-Paul scoffed.

If true, this would tend to support the "rope-a-dope" theory that Bush is letting his critics make a big deal out of WMD, so that he can completely undercut them by producing the weapons at a politically opportune moment. I've been skeptical of that theory, but, well, this is some degree of support for it.

An interesting Friedman column on the early impact of Iraqi liberation on the Arab world.

Shortly after the 25-member Governing Council was appointed in Iraq, the head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, questioned the U.S.-appointed Council's legitimacy. "If this Council was elected," complained Mr. Moussa, "it would have gained much power and credibility."

I love that quote. I love it, first of all, for its bold, gutsy, shameless, world-class hypocrisy. Mr. Moussa presides over an Arab League in which not one of the 22 member states has a leader elected in a free and fair election. On top of it, before the war, Mr. Moussa did all he could to shield Saddam Hussein from attack, although Saddam had never held a real election in his life. Yet, there was Mr. Moussa questioning the new U.S.-appointed Iraqi Council, which, even in its infant form, is already the most representative government Iraq has ever had.

But I also love Mr. Moussa's comment for its unintended revolutionary message: "power and credibility" come from governments that are freely "elected." If only that were the motto of the Arab League. Alas, it is not, but it might be one day, and that brings me to the core question of this column: What has been the Arab reaction to Iraq?

His conclusion: very early indications seem to be bearing out the "Pagano Doctrine" of Middle East democratization-by-example.

[via CalPundit]

...by a (former) Pentagon insider on the "odd set of circumstances" that's gotten us into a mess in Iraq.

I am now retired. Shortly before my retirement I was allowed to return to my primary office of assignment, having served in NESA as a desk officer backfill for 10 months. The transfer was something I had sought, but my wish was granted only after I made a particular comment to my superior, in response to my reading of a February Secretary of State cable answering a long list of questions from a Middle Eastern country regarding U.S. planning for the aftermath in Iraq. The answers had been heavily crafted by the Pentagon, and to me, they were remarkably inadequate, given the late stage of the game. I suggested to my boss that if this was as good as it got, some folks on the Pentagon's E-ring may be sitting beside Saddam Hussein in the war crimes tribunals.

TNR's got the scoop from an official who's read the mysterious 28 pages. Why aren't all those tossing accusations of objective-pro-saddamism tossing accusations of objective(hah)-pro-saudism at the President right about now? What on earth could be the national security implications requiring these pages be classified? Why do conservatives hate America so?

"There's a lot more in the 28 pages than money. Everyone's chasing the charities," says this official. "They should be chasing direct links to high levels of the Saudi government. We're not talking about rogue elements. We're talking about a coordinated network that reaches right from the hijackers to multiple places in the Saudi government."

[via Talking Points Memo]